Country

Chile

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Chile.

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.

Temperature

  • Climate change is expected to produce increases in monthly maximum temperatures, which are expected to be 3.5-3.9°C above the historical mean.
  • The number of frost days when the minimal temperature is below 0°C, will decrease by 12-42 days by 2040-2059 days and 37-69 by the end of the century; the effect is projected to occur during winter months and be most pronounced in July and August.
  • The number of summer days (maximum temperature above 25°C) are expected to begin earlier and increase by 2-27 days by 2040-2059 and 17-61 days by 2080-2099.

Precipitation

  • Precipitation is expected to decrease consistently by 1.5-9.3 mm per month by 2040-2059 to 5.5-11 mm by 2080-2099.
  • Together with growing temperatures and expected increased intensity in winds, there could be an increase in evapotranspiration pressures, which could impact surface water reservoirs.
  • The regions near the Atacama Desert as well as the central regions are expected to experience decreases in precipitation while southern and north western areas are expected to see minimal changes in precipitation patterns.

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.

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