Climate Projections

Mean Projections

This page presents Benin's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page.  Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below. 

Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page        CMIP5 Data





Temperature

  • Mean annual temperatures are projected to rise by 1.0-3.0° C by the 2060's, with the northern regions of Benin experiencing the most rapid increase.
  • Mean annual temperatures over West Africa are projected to increase by 3°C to 6°C by the end of the 21st century for under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.

Precipitation

  • Rainfall projections in Benin have better consistency on the seasonal level than the annual level. Projections tend towards decreases in rainfall during January-March and April-June, and increases during July-September and October-December.
  • By the end of the 21st century many CMIP5 models project mean precipitation over West Africa to increase during the rainy season with a small delay to the start of the rainy season. 

 


 

 

 

Temparature

Precipitation