Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Belize.

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)


  • The mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 0.8 to 2.9°C by the 2060's, and 1.3 to 4.6°C by the 2090's. 
  • All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered ‘hot’ in the current climate. 
  • According to the UNDP climate change profile, annual projections indicate that ‘hot’ days will occur on 20‐55% of days by the 2060s, and 17‐76% of days by the 2090s. Days considered ‘hot’ by current climate standards for their season are projected to occur on 21‐95% of days of the season by the 2090s, with the fastest rates of increase projected for May to July and August to October.  
  • Nights that are considered ‘hot’ for the annual climate of 1970‐99 are projected to occur on 30‐61% of nights by the 2060s and 37‐84% of nights by the 2090s. Nights that are considered hot for each season by 1970‐99 standards are projected to occur on 34‐99% of nights in every season by the 2090s, with the fastest rates of increase in May to July and August to October.


  • Projections of mean annual rainfall from different models in the ensemble are broadly consistent in indicating decreases in rainfall for Belize.
  • Ensemble median values for almost all seasons and emissions scenarios are negative. Projections vary between ‐64% and +20% by the 2090's with ensemble median values of ‐11 to ‐22%.

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.