The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
- Mean annual temperatures are projected to increase from 0.4°C to 2.1°C by the 2060’s. Warming is projected to increase further by the 2090’s from around 1.0°C to 2.1°C.
- Number of hot days is projected to increase substantially in turn increasing the frequency of hot days and nights that are considered “hot.”
- According to the UNDP climate change profile, annual projections indicate that ‘hot’ days will occur on 27‐67% of days by the 2060’s, and 36‐100% of days by the 2090’s. Days that are hot for each season are projected to increase most rapidly during the months of September to November, occurring on 79‐100% of nights in every season by the 2090’s.
- Nights that are considered ‘hot’ for the annual climate of 1970‐99 are projected to occur on 27‐66% of nights by the 2060’s and 37‐99% of nights by the 2090’s. Nights that are hot for each season are projected to increase most rapidly during the months of September to November, occurring on 79‐100% of nights in every season by the 2090’s.
- Projections of mean annual rainfall from different models are broadly consistent in indicating decreases in rainfall for Barbados. Annual projections vary between ‐53 to +18% by the 2090’s with ensemble median changes of ‐7 to ‐18%.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.