Country

Barbados

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Barbados.

Climate ProjectionsMean Projections

This page presents Barbados’s projected climate. Information is shown by climatologies, as either projected mean or anomaly (change). We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. Data can be analyzed as both annual and seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Projection data on this page is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system. It is important to note that RCPs are “what if scenarios” and provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions and mitigation efforts. Data for specific coordinates can be downloaded in the Data Download page.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. The data currently presented is derived from the fifth phase of the CMIPs, CMIP5. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP5 is used for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report and CMIP6 will be used for the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.


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Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

Temperature

  • Mean annual temperatures are projected to increase from 0.4°C to 2.1°C by the 2060’s. Warming is projected to increase further by the 2090’s from around 1.0°C to 2.1°C. 
  • Number of hot days is projected to increase substantially in turn increasing the frequency of hot days and nights that are considered “hot.”
  • According to the UNDP climate change profile, annual projections indicate that ‘hot’ days will occur on 27‐67% of days by the 2060’s, and 36‐100% of days by the 2090’s. Days that are hot for each season are projected to increase most rapidly during the months of September to November, occurring on 79‐100% of nights in every season by the 2090’s.
  • Nights that are considered ‘hot’ for the annual climate of 1970‐99 are projected to occur on 27‐66% of nights by the 2060’s and 37‐99% of nights by the 2090’s. Nights that are hot for each season are projected to increase most rapidly during the months of September to November, occurring on 79‐100% of nights in every season by the 2090’s. 

Precipitation

  • Projections of mean annual rainfall from different models are broadly consistent in indicating decreases in rainfall for Barbados. Annual projections vary between ‐53 to +18% by the 2090’s with ensemble median changes of ‐7 to ‐18%. 


This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.


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