The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
- Mean temperatures across Bangladesh are projected to increase between 1.4°C and 2.4°C by 2050 and 2100, respectively. This warming is expected to be more pronounced in the winter months (December-February).
- Average temperatures are expected to increase between 1°C and 2°C by 2100, with similar rates of warming projected to occur in all three regions of the country.
- The frequency of tropical cyclones in the bay of Bengal may increase and, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third Assessment Report, there is “evidence that the peak intensity may increase by 5% to 10% and precipitation rates may increase by 20% to 30%” (IPCC 2001). Cyclone-induced storm surges are likely to be exacerbated by a potential rise in sea level of over 27 cm by 2050.
- Runoff, a measure of water availability, is projected to increase.
- The time between rainy days is expected to increase.
- Peak 5-day rainfall intensity (a surrogate for an extreme storm event) is projected to increase.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.