Climate Projections

Mean Projections

This page presents Bahamas, The's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page.  Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below. 

Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page        CMIP5 Data





Temperature

  • The mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 0.8-2.3°C by the 2060's, and 1.2-2.5°C by the 2090's.
  • Projected rate of warming is most rapid in the summer from June-August and September-November.  
  • Substantial increases in the frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights and decreases in the frequency of ‘cold’ days and nights are projected to occur, with the most rapid changes occurring in the June-August period. Projections indicate that ‘hot’ days will occur on 24-47% of days by the 2060's and 26-67% of days by the 2090's, whereas ‘cold’ days will occur on only 0-4% days in the year. 

Precipitation

  • Rainfall projections indicate decreases in rainfall for the Bahamas, mainly due to decreases in rainfall during the March-May and June-August periods. The decreases in the months from March to August however are partly offset by overall increases in rainfall in the September-November period.
  • The proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy events during the March-August period is projected to decrease.

Temparature

Precipitation