The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
- The mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 0.8-2.3°C by the 2060's, and 1.2-2.5°C by the 2090's.
- Projected rate of warming is most rapid in the summer from June-August and September-November.
- Substantial increases in the frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights and decreases in the frequency of ‘cold’ days and nights are projected to occur, with the most rapid changes occurring in the June-August period. Projections indicate that ‘hot’ days will occur on 24-47% of days by the 2060's and 26-67% of days by the 2090's, whereas ‘cold’ days will occur on only 0-4% days in the year.
- Rainfall projections indicate decreases in rainfall for the Bahamas, mainly due to decreases in rainfall during the March-May and June-August periods. The decreases in the months from March to August however are partly offset by overall increases in rainfall in the September-November period.
- The proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy events during the March-August period is projected to decrease.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.