Climate Projections

Mean Projections

This page presents Argentina's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page.  Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below. 

Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page        CMIP5 Data





Temperature

  • Under business as usual (RCP 8.5) average annual temperatures are expected to increase by 1.5°C by mid-century with monthly maximum temperatures increasing by 1.3°C to 1.8°C and minimum monthly temperatures decreasing by 1.3°C to 1.7°C.
  • Business as usual scenarios (RCP 8.5) project 14.5 additional hot days with temperatures above 35°C by mid-century and 34.7 days by end of century.
  • The duration of warm spells in Argentina is expected to increase by 6.6 days in 2040-2059 to 25.6 days in 2080-2099 under a business as usual scenario (RCP 8.5).
  • Projected increase in hot days and warm spells are more pronounced around January during southern hemispheric summer while changes in frost days are highest in July, southern hemispheric winter.

Precipitation

  • Country wide annual average precipitation is expected to increase with relatively stable seasonality but wide geographic variation throughout the country.
  • The Northeastern regions of Argentina are expected to experience an increase in precipitation while the south west may experience decreased precipitation.
  • Under business as usual (RCP 8.5), precipitation intensity in the northeastern areas of the country could increase to have an increase of 15mm of maximum 5-day rainfall (10-year return level) by 2040-2059 and 21mm increase by 2080-2099.
  • The probability of a severe drought likelihood under a business as usual scenario (RCP 8.5) is projected to increase by 0.35 in the Mid-Eastern regions of the country and remain relatively unchanged in the North-East.