The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Mean annual temperature is projected to increase between 1.1° C and 2.5° C by the 2060s and 1.4° C and 4.6° C by the 2090s. Projections indicate that warming will be greater in the northern part of Nigeria.
- The annual number of ‘hot’ nights is projected to increase in Nigeria. Projections indicate an increase of 32-60% by the 2060s and 37-74% of nights by the 2090s, with ‘hot’ nights increasing most rapidly in June-August.
- The largest increase in length of heat waves is projected for northern Nigeria.
- Most projections indicate small increases in mean annual precipitation over Nigeria, but indicate wide variations across the country.
- There is low to medium confidence in GCM projections for heavy rainfall over West Africa by the end of the 21st Century, but Regional Climate Models (RCMs) indicate an increase in the number of days with extreme rainfall in May and July over West Africa.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.