The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Temperatures are projected to be warmer by approximately 2°C by 2060, especially during the dry months of May, June and July.
- The wet scenario forecasts an average temperature increase of 1.55°C and the dry scenario shows a temperature increase of 2.41°C.
- Cold days show a decreasing trend of 2-12 days.
- The wet scenario for annual mean precipitation shows an increase of 22% and the dry scenario shows a precipitation decrease of 19%.
- Dry days are projected to increase by 6-7 days.
- Winters are projected to be drier and summers wetter, which could result in increased floods and droughts.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.