The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models used in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends include:
- Mean temperatures are expected to increase by 2.6°С by 2050.
- By 2050, the coarser-resolution GCMs project that Algeria will become warmer, with more frequent heat waves and fewer frost days.
- Future rainfall projections diverge, with 14 of 40 models projecting a 6% increase by 2050, but with a 5% reduction in country-wide average values. The greatest reductions are projected for March-May by 16% and the greatest increases projected during September-November by 22%. Daily rainfall intensity is projected to increase by 7%.
- Coarser-resolution GCMs project an increase in average rainfall and intensity. Higher-resolution (finer spatial scale) climate models project that Algeria will become wetter by the end of the century.
- The maximum amount of rain that falls in any 5-day period is projected to increase.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.