The climate science community sources a suite of models to inform decision makers on future climate. Among the most widely used are GCMs (Global Climate Models or Earth System models) that capture the non-linear complexity of the Earth to represent changes across the climate system for key processes and contexts.
According to several literature review, key projected climate trends include:
- Average annual temperature is projected to increase between 1.4° C and 4.0° C by the 2060s, and between 2.0° C and 6.2° C by the 2090s.
- Spring and summer are projected to experience the fastest rate of warming under these projections with pretty uniform warming over the country’s regions.
- The frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights per year are projected to increase throughout the middle and late 21st century. ‘Hot’ days are projected to increase and occur on 14-25% of days by the 2060s and 16-32% of days by the 2090s, while ‘hot’ nights are projected to increase and occur on 16-26% of nights by the 2060s and 19-36% of nights by the 2090s. Both ‘hot’ days and nights are projected to increase most rapidly in the summer months of June-August.
- ‘Cold’ days and nights are projected to decrease in frequency and become exceedingly uncommon, with projections for the 2090s indicating that they will occur on 0-6% of days per. ‘Heat wave duration’ is projected to increase over Afghanistan throughout the middle and late 21st century under A2, A1B, and B1 emissions scenarios.
- The eastern regions of Afghanistan are projected to see the largest change in heat wave duration.
- The annual number of ‘frost’ days are projected to decrease under high, medium, and low emissions scenarios for middle and late 21st century. Mountainous areas of eastern and northeastern Afghanistan are projected to see the largest decreases in ‘frost’ days.
- Annual precipitation projections from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicate that there will be little or no change in precipitation over Afghanistan throughout the 21st century.
- Projections for maximum 1- and 5-day rainfall indicate small increases in every season but March through May.
The section below allows you to explore further climate indices derived from GCMs used in IPCC reports by different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and models in map and charts.