South Asia

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of models to inform decision makers on future climate. Among the most widely used are GCMs (Global Climate Models or Earth System Models) that capture the non-linear complexity of the Earth to represent changes across the climate system for key processes and contexts. Future climate projections are presented in three main forms, multi-model ensemble, range of climate models, and deviation from historical baseline. Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) allows users to explore further climate indices derived from GCMs used in IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) report by different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and models in map and charts.  Data can be presented per individual models or through the multi-model ensemble. CCKP prioritizes analysis using multi-model ensembles as they are more robust and have proven to be most successful in representing expected changes. A detailed metadata can be found here.

According to the IPCC AR5 and Turn Down the Heat report:

  • In South Asia, projected changes to the monsoon system and rising peak temperatures put water and food resources at severe risk. And the South East Asian region is projected to see a strong increase in the near term in monthly heat extremes.
  • Decreased number of tropical cyclones making landfall, but maximum wind velocity at the coast is projected to increase by about 6 percent for mainland South East Asia by 2080s under RCP8.5. 
  • Warming over Europe and Central Asia is projected to be above the global mean land warming. Under RCP8.5 summer warming continues almost linearly until the end of the century, reaching about 8.5°C above the 1951–1980 baseline by 2100.
  • Although projections of precipitation for the Central Asian countries suffer from substantial model uncertainties, the overall trend for heavy precipitation intensity is
    below the global average.
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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.