Middle East & North Africa

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of models to inform decision makers on future climate. Among the most widely used are GCMs (Global Climate Models or Earth System Models) that capture the non-linear complexity of the Earth to represent changes across the climate system for key processes and contexts. Future climate projections are presented in three main forms, multi-model ensemble, range of climate models, and deviation from historical baseline. Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) allows users to explore further climate indices derived from GCMs used in IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) report by different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and models in map and charts.  Data can be presented per individual models or through the multi-model ensemble. CCKP prioritizes analysis using multi-model ensembles as they are more robust and have proven to be most successful in representing expected changes. A detailed metadata can be found here.

According to the IPCC AR5 and Turn Down the Heat report:

  • Rainfall is predicted to decline by 20–40 percent under RCP2.6 and by up to 60 percent under RCP8.5 in Middle East and North Africa. Agricultural productivity is expected to drop in parts of the region with increasing water scarcity and higher temperatures.
  • Crop yields in the region may decrease by up to 30 percent at 1.5–2°C warming in Jordan, Egypt, and Libya and by almost 60 percent (for wheat) at 3–4°C warming in the Syrian Arab Republic.
  • The period of consecutive hot days is expected to increase, particularly in cities due to the urban heat island effect.
  • Projections show that all coastlines are at risk from sea-level rise. Depending on the city, sea levels are projected to rise by 0.34–0.39 m in a 1.5°C world, with the highest estimate reaching 1.04 m in Muscat.
  • Key impacts of climate change in coastal zones include inundation resulting from slow onset sea-level rise, flooding, and damages caused by extreme events (including storms, storm surges, and increased coastal erosion).
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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.