Latin America & Caribbean

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of models to inform decision makers on future climate. Among the most widely used are GCMs (Global Climate Models or Earth System Models) that capture the non-linear complexity of the Earth to represent changes across the climate system for key processes and contexts. Future climate projections are presented in three main forms, multi-model ensemble, range of climate models, and deviation from historical baseline. Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) allows users to explore further climate indices derived from GCMs used in IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) report by different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and models in map and charts.  Data can be presented per individual models or through the multi-model ensemble. CCKP prioritizes analysis using multi-model ensembles as they are more robust and have proven to be most successful in representing expected changes. A detailed metadata can be found here.

According to the IPCC AR5 and Turn Down the Heat report:

  • Projections indicate that most dry regions get drier and wet regions get wetter. Reductions in precipitation are as high as 20–40 percent for the Caribbean, Central America, central Brazil, and Patagonia under RCP8.5. An increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is projected particularly for the tropical and subtropical Pacific coastline and southern Brazil.
  • Increased droughts and higher mean temperatures are projected to decrease water supplies and affect most ecosystems and agroecosystems.
  • The projected trend of more intense rainfall can significantly increase the risk of landslides especially in sloping terrain often occupied by the poorer rural and urban communities.
  • An increase of approximately 80 percent in the frequency of the strongest north Atlantic tropical cyclones is projected under RCP8.5 compared to present.
  • In the Caribbean, substantial adverse impacts on local critical ecosystems, agriculture, infrastructure, and the tourism industry can be expected under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. 
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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.