Europe & Central Asia

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of models to inform decision makers on future climate. Among the most widely used are GCMs (Global Climate Models or Earth System Models) that capture the non-linear complexity of the Earth to represent changes across the climate system for key processes and contexts. Future climate projections are presented in three main forms, multi-model ensemble, range of climate models, and deviation from historical baseline. Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) allows users to explore further climate indices derived from GCMs used in IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) report by different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and models in map and charts.  Data can be presented per individual models or through the multi-model ensemble. CCKP prioritizes analysis using multi-model ensembles as they are more robust and have proven to be most successful in representing expected changes. A detailed metadata can be found here.

According to the IPCC AR5 and Turn Down the Heat report:

  • Decreases in annual runoff are likely in parts of southern Europe by the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5.
  • Summer temperature extremes over central and southern Europe are projected to warm substantially more than the corresponding mean local temperatures as a result of enhanced temperature variability at interannual to intraseasonal time scales. 
  • In much of Northern Europe 20-year return values of daily high temperatures are projected to increase 2°C or more than JJA mean temperatures under RCP8.5. 
  • Due to changes in river water temperatures and river flows, the capacity of nuclear and fossil-fueled power plants in Southern and Eastern Europe could decrease from 6.3 percent to 19 percent in Europe from 2031–2060 compared to the production levels observed from 1971–2000.
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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.