The agricultural sector is an important staple in Ukraine’s economy and food security. While rising temperatures may have a positive impact in the production of winter wheat, potato and corn in the central and northern regions of Ukraine, the expected reduction of rainfall in the southern parts of the country is projected to have negative effects on the production of winter wheat. Agriculture employs approximately a quarter of the working population and produces over 13% of GDP. The productivity of winter grain is highly vulnerable to weather conditions during growing periods and can fluctuate by 20% to 50%. Similarly, spring grain can fluctuate between 35% and 75%. Trends show an earlier onset of warmer spring weather as well as an earlier onset of cold days during autumn. An increased number of consecutive dry days coupled with decreased rainfall and warmer days in the summer could require a shift from rainfed agriculture to irrigation.
This section provides insights into the climate change impacts on agricultural productivity indicators and the trends in agriculture related socio-economic indicators.