Tunisia’s agriculture sector is endangered by sea level rise and variability in temperatures and precipitation, which may lead to decreased crop yields, increased water scarcity, reduced water quality, and changes in growing season. The majority of Tunisia’s agricultural production occurs in coastal zones, which are expected to experience significant sea level rise by the end of the century. This can increase the possibility of saline intrusion into coastal aquifers, making this region particularly vulnerable to a decrease in the quality of water available to irrigate crops in coastal areas. Soil salinity may also occur due to increased evaporation. Increasing temperatures can prevent crops from reaching maturity due to lack of adequate moisture in the soil. Floods and droughts are expected to occur more frequently in coastal, desert, and urban areas, which may result in crop losses and food insecurity. These climate risks will likely have a negative impact on crop yields, mainly wheat, barley, and irrigated potatoes. Overall, Tunisia’s economy is projected to suffer a reduced output of $2 billion to $2.7 billion between 2000 and 2030 (equivalent to 4.7- 6.4% of GDP in 2016) due to the combined effects of increasing global food prices and decreased crop yields (USAID, 2018).
This section allows you to gain insights into climate change impacts on agricultural productivity indicators. These indicators give a comprehensive view on a country’s dependence on agriculture, on three fronts – economically, in terms of dependent population and land resources availability.