The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:
- Climate change is expected to result in increases in monthly maximum temperatures, which are expected to be 1.2 to 2.4°C above the historical mean.
- The number of hot days are expected to rise by as many as 24.4 days by 2040-2059, under an RCP8.5 scenario.
- The number of summer days (maximum temperature above 25°C) are expected to begin earlier and increase by at least 25 days, possibly increasing by as much as 59 days by 2040-2059, under a RCP8.5 scenario.
- Annual precipitation is expected to fall by 36.0mm in 2040-2059.
- Precipitation patterns are expected to have increased variability with an increase in rainfall intensity.
- The country has recently been impacted by large variations in rainfall as well as recurring drought events. This is expected to have an increasingly adverse effect of agricultural production and particularly smallholder farmers and communities.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.