The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:
- The mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 0.4-2.1°C by the 2060's, and 0.9-3.5°C by the 2090's. The projected rate of warming is slightly more rapid in the colder seasons December-February and September-November.
- Substantial increases in the frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights and decreases in the frequency of ‘cold’ days and nights are projected to occur. Annually, ‘hot’ days and nights will occur on 26-66% of days and nights respectively by the 2060's, and 37-100% of days and nights respectively by the 2090's. Seasonally, days and nights that are considered hot for each season are projected to increase most rapidly in the September-November period, occurring on 77-100% of days and nights in every season by the 2090's. ‘Cold’ days and nights diminish in frequency and occur in none of the projections for the 2090's.
- Projections indicate increases in sea surface temperatures throughout the year with a range +0.7 to +2.8 by the 2080's.
- Projections of mean annual rainfall indicate overall decreases in rainfall for St. Kitts and Nevis.
- The proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy events is projected to decrease in all seasons in most climate model projections, with changes of -24% to +9% expected to occur by the 2090's.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.