Just over a third of the Philippines population is employed in the agriculture sector which contributes, when including fisheries, to 15% of the country’s GDP. The country’s five main crops are rice, corn, sugarcane, banana and coconut, with 60% of rice production in the northern island of Luzon, 60% of corn and coconut and 80% of banana in the southern island of Mindanao, and 70% sugar cane from the Visayas Islands. The dependency of large amounts of the population on the agriculture sector (either directly or indirectly) makes the country particularly vulnerable to climatic shocks, such as flooding and drought. For example, between 1970-1990, typhoons, floods and droughts were responsible for 84.2% of Philippine rice losses. Indeed, Philippines is projected to experience an estimated decline in agricultural productivity of 9-21% by 2050 as a consequence of climate change. Spatial analysis of how forecasted climate change impacts could affect agricultural land show that up to 85% of the country’s strategically important agricultural land could be affected from typhoons, floods and droughts.
This section provides insights into the climate change impacts on agricultural productivity indicators and the trends in agriculture related socio-economic indicators.