The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:
- Under business as usual, average annual temperatures are expected to rise by 2°C by midcentury and 4° by the end of the century (RCP 8.5).
- By 2040-2059, the highest maximum daily temperatures are expected to increase by 3°C while the lowest daily minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 1.7°C under a business as usual (RCP 8.5).
- Temperatures are projected to increase the most in the north-eastern regions of the country along the Paraguay river watershed.
- In a business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5) projected annual probability of a heat wave will increase by 8% in mid-century and 24% by end-of-century (2080-2099).
- Average monthly precipitation in winter months are projected to increase significantly while precipitation in summer months is projected to remain constant or decrease.
- The annual monthly rainfall is expected to increase by 18mm by 2040-2050 under a business as usual scenario (RCP 8.5).
- Regional climate models predict that the greatest increase in precipitation will be in the North, East, and Southeast of the country while decreases in precipitation could be experienced in the northeastern regions (National Adaptation Plan, 2017).
- The number of extreme events, including floods and droughts are projected to double in a business as usual scenario (A2) (National Adaptation Plan, 2017).
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.