Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Palau.

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:


  • The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the highest emission pathway (RCP8.5) is an average temperature increase of approximately 1.3°C by 2050 and approximately 2.7°C by 2090.
  • The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the lowest emission pathway (RCP2.6) is an average temperature increase of around 0.7°C by 2050 and a similar temperature increase by 2090 of 0.7°C.
  • The CMIP3 models predict with very high confidence an increase in both intensity and frequency of days of extreme heat.


  • Great uncertainty remains around future changes in average annual precipitation, none of the model ensemble predictions are statistically significant and the estimated ranges are large.
  • CMIP3 models predict little change in rainfall by 2030 but with a majority of simulations estimating an increase of rainfall of greater than 5% by 2090 under a high emissions scenario.

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.