The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Temperatures are expected to increase by 1.4- 3.7°C by 2060, with warming more rapid in southern and coastal areas.
- The number of hot days and nights (defined as the temperature exceeded on 10% of days or nights in the current climate of that region and season) are projected to increase throughout the country, hot days by 17- 35% in 2060 and hot nights by 25- 45% in 2060.
- The number of cold nights (defined as the temperature below which 10% of days or nights are recorded in the current climate of that region or season) is projected to steadily decrease.
- Rainfall projections are less certain for the country as a whole and vary by region. Seasonal level projections are more certain and indicate decreased dry season rainfall (January-June) and increased wet season rainfall (July-September).
- The number of heavy rainfall events (defined as a daily rainfall total which exceeds the threshold that is exceeded on 5% of rainy days in the current climate of that region or season) is projected to increase by 2060, particularly during the dry season (January-June).
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.