The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Temperatures in the Pacific are projected to increase between 1.4 and 3.1°C, and this warming is projected to be somewhat smaller than the annual mean warming in all seasons.
- The future of rainfall patterns across the Pacific region is a subject of continued debate, with models projecting +/-25% changes in rainfall. As yet it is not possible to get a clear picture for precipitation change, due to large-model uncertainties.
- While average annual and monthly rainfall changes are inconsistent across this region of the Pacific, recent evidence and model simulations point to a more frequent occurrence of El Niño weather patterns, bringing an increase in drought conditions along this region.
- These more frequent El Niño events are believed to be associated with climate change, although some disagreement exists within the science community on this point.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.