Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Madagascar.

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.


  • By 2065, temperatures are projected to increase between 1.1°C and 2.6°C, with the lowest projected increases along the northern coastal regions and the highest projected increases for the southern part of the country.


  • By 2065, in the southern part of the country rainfall is projected to increase during the summer months of January-April, and again in October- November, with the exception of the southernmost station, which may become drier in October; and to decrease during May, with greater decreases projected inland through June and July and additional during August and September.
  • By 2065, projected changes in rainfall are less certain for the north, with some models suggesting drier and others suggesting wetter conditions.

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.