The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The low resolution of available Global Circulation Models (GCMs), however, inadequately captures the topographic diversity and resulting precipitation dynamics across the Kyrgyz Republic and renders available projections of precipitation change unreliable, with a considerable amount of disagreement existing on how precipitation may behave in the future.
- Central Asia is expected to experience an increase in mean annual temperature on average of 2°C by 2020 and between 4°C and 5°C by 2100. A decrease in annual runoff of 12% is also projected by 2020, with a potential three-fold increase by 2050. These changes will result in increased incidence of drought, heat waves, and eventual crop losses.
- Summertime diurnal temperature ranges are projected to increase, suggesting a pronounced increase in maximum temperatures relative to minimum temperatures.
- A significant reduction in the country’s glaciers and snowfields is projected, with major implications for the country’s water resources.
- According to the IPCC's 4th Assessment Report, an increase in winter precipitation and a decrease in summer precipitation are projected for Central Asia. The general perception within the Kyrgyz Republic, that water resources for agricultural areas are at high risk to suffer from droughts, requires authentication.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.