The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes. According to the State of Jamaican Climate report.
- Temperature increases are expected to be higher in interior regions and western Jamaica.
- August-October are expected to have higher temperature changes than other months.
- Regional climate models and Global climate models predict the country may be up to 21% drier under RCP8.5.
- Change in rainfall during the rainy season will be the primary driver of drying trends.
- Increases in dry spell length are expected to be greater in March and October by mid-century.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.