The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the highest emission pathway (RCP8.5) is an average temperature increase of 1.3°C by 2050 and 2.7°C by 2090.
- The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the lowest emission pathway (RCP2.6) is an average temperature increase of around 0.78°C by 2050 and a marginal reduction of this temperature increase by 2090 to 0.76°C.
- According to FSM’s Second National Communication, the intensity and frequency of days of extreme heat are projected to increase throughout the decades up to 2100.
- Great uncertainty remains around future changes in average annual precipitation, none of the model ensemble predictions are statistically significant and the estimated ranges are large.
- FSM’s Second National Communication explain how CMIP3 models predict little change in rainfall by 2030 but with a majority of simulations estimating an increase of rainfall of greater than 5% by 2090 under a high emissions scenario.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.