The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Temperatures are projected to increase by 1°C to 2°C by 2050, and between 2°C and 4°C higher in 2080
- Temperature variance under future climate trends will be more pronounced at higher elevations than in the lowlands.
- The number of dry days is expected to increase toward the year 2080.
- The frequency of more intense precipitation and extreme events such as storms and floods is expected to increase toward 2080.
- In the North Pacific, rainfall is projected to decrease between 13 and 25%, with the least affected regions comprising the Tilaran Mountains and the Nicoya Peninsula, which are projected to experience rainfall reductions of 2-18%, while the Volcanic Mountains, Santa Elena Peninsula are projected to experience 20-29% reductions in rainfall.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.