The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Model projections indicate that mean annual temperature increase may range between 1.72°C and 2.08°C by the 2060's, and between 2.69 and 3.22°C by the 2090's.
- Projected rates of warming are greatest in the coolest season; June-August temperature is projected to increase by 1.5 to 5.4°C by the 2090's.
- All projections indicate an increase in consecutive dry days by 4 days in the southeast, and by 1 day in the central parts of the country by 2030-2049.
- The heat wave index is projected to increase throughout the country with a 1 day increase projected in the northeast, 2 days in the central part, and the maximum projected for the southeast parts of the country by 4 days.
- Projections of rainfall are broadly consistent in indicating increases in mean annual rainfall. The ensemble range spans changes of ‐4 to +8% by 2030's.
- Projected increases in rainfall in the central parts of the country indicate maximum increases of up to 8% during June-August and a reduction by 4% during September-November.
- The highest increase in precipitation is projected for the northeast, with up to 16% increase during March-May and 6% during December-February while a 3% decreased is projected for June-August.
- The increases range from 0 to 16% in annual average rainfall by the 2090's and affect the whole country throughout the year. Rainfall amounts are projected to increase by 0.3 to 1.5% by 2050.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.