Burkina Faso’s economy is deeply rooted in the agricultural sector, with farming and forestry employing over 80% of the work force and contributing to 40% of the gross domestic product (GDP). The majority of farmers rely on groundwater and rain. With future climate scenarios predicting an increase in temperatures, decrease in rainfall, and, most importantly, increased year-to-year variability, the climatic conditions for agricultural production become less favorable, and the country is likely to see impacts such as the possibility for a more pervasive grain deficit. Millet yields in the north are projected to decrease as are maize yields in the south due to water deficits in July through September. Burkina Faso is the largest producer of cotton in Sub-Saharan Africa; the industry contributes 8% of the country’s GDP and employs approximately 17% of the population. Despite a general decline expected in the yield of most of the country’s cereal crops, cotton yields have the potential to increase due to rising temperatures. Nevertheless, if rainfall grows increasingly erratic, Burkina Faso’s largest and most economically important cotton cash crop will continue to be vulnerable.

This section provides insights into the climate change impacts on agricultural productivity indicators and the trends in agriculture related socio-economic indicators.