The agriculture sector in Bangladesh is important for national food security and for providing raw materials to the manufacturing industry (e.g., cotton textiles, jute, frozen fish and seafood, tea processing, etc.), which is now becoming the lead contributor to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a 30- to 45-centimeter sea level rise could displace more than 35 million people from coastal districts in Bangladesh. The combined effects of temperatures and precipitation increase, CO2 fertilization, flooding, occasional seasonal droughts, and loss of arable land in coastal areas resulting from salt water intrusion are expected to result in declines in rice production of 3.9 percent each year, or a cumulative total of 80 million tons over 2005-2050. Under projected climate change scenarios, production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32% respectively by 2050. Out of 2.85 million hectares of the coastal and offshore areas, about 1.2 million hectares of arable land are already affected by varying degrees of soil salinity. Increasing rainfall could further aggravate the problems facing Bangladesh’s agriculture.
This section provides insights into the climate change impacts on agricultural productivity indicators and the trends in agriculture related socio-economic indicators.