Great uncertainty remains around the precise trajectory of future change in the availability of water resources in Armenia. According to analysis in Armenia’s Third National Communication, total annual river flows (m3) can be expected to decline dramatically, -11.9% by 2030 and -24% by 2070. These changes would have a significant impact on the levels of Armenia’s lakes and reservoirs, with implication for human society potentially coming from the resulting damage to fish stocks and decline in water levels and water quality. Some areas of Armenia are already water-scarce and desertification has been documented, better knowledge is needed to understand the potential threat of a broader restructuring of the nation’s ecosystems, particularly whether tipping points threaten the viability of current agricultural operations which focus primarily on grains, potato, and vegetables.
This section provides insights into projected climate change impacts on various hydrological indicators.