Armenia is already struggling with land degradation on a majority of its agricultural land, climate change will likely accelerate this degradation as extreme weather events increase in frequency and severity. Yield reductions are forecast for key crops, including a 5-12% reduction in potato yields and 5-7% reduction in grape yields. Simultaneously, the most agriculturally productive land area is forecast to shrink, with a 17% increase in less productive desert and meadow-steppe land. According to FAO analysis in 2013 the large majority of agricultural holdings remain small, with an average size of 1.4 ha, many farming households are poor and many already rely on remittances sent from household members who migrate for work during fallow periods on the farm. Climate changes, such as changes to growing seasons, extreme weather events and species range shifts threaten to expose a lack of adaptability and resilience in the population dependent on the agricultural sector.
This section provides insights into the climate change impacts on agricultural productivity indicators and the trends in agriculture related socio-economic indicators.